Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths in September 2026

Monthly reportDataset: UCDP Candidate Events, preliminaryData through

UCDP recorded 119 eventsP of organized violence in Ethiopia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 609P. The low estimate is 582 and the high estimate is 1,393P. UCDP counts 157P of these deaths as deaths of civilians. The count for August 2026 was 71 eventsP.

The count for September 2025 was 61 events. The change from September 2025 to September 2026 is up 95 percentP. Among the 26 months with a report for Ethiopia, September 2026 has the 6th highest count of events. Ethiopia holds 6 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in all countries with a page in September 2026. In September 2025, the share was 3 percent.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Regions

The table has 10 regions at most.

Table 1. Ethiopia, September 2026: events and estimated deaths by region, in name order
RegionEventsPEstimated deathsP
Afar state152
Amhara state39313
Benishangul-Gumuz state10
Central Ethiopia regional state113
Gambella state115
Oromiya state1656
South Ethiopia regional state36
Tigray state43204

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 1. Events in Ethiopia, September 2026. The map shows 119 events with 609 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Events

The table lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths. The CSV file of Ethiopia has each event.

Table 2. Ethiopia, September 2026: events with 10 or more estimated deaths (10 of 119 events), in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsPLowHigh
3 Sep 2026West Welega zone, Oromiya stateGovernment of Ethiopia; OLAState-based484848
8 Sep 2026Southeastern zone, Tigray stateGovernment of Ethiopia; TPLFState-based131313
14 Sep 2026Gurage zone, Central Ethiopia regional stateFano; CiviliansOne-sided131115
17 Sep 2026Northwestern zone, Tigray stateGovernment of Ethiopia; TPLFState-based464646
17 Sep 2026Agnuak zone, Gambella stateAnuak; NuerNon-state151016
22 Sep 2026Southern zone, Tigray stateGovernment of Ethiopia; EPFASState-based10109
22 Sep 2026Southern zone, Tigray stateGovernment of Ethiopia; EPFASState-based10109
22 Sep 2026North Welo zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; EPFASState-based272272272
23 Sep 2026Southern zone, Tigray stateGovernment of Ethiopia; EPFASState-based171717
25 Sep 2026Southern zone, Tigray stateGovernment of Ethiopia; EPFASState-based474733

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

In a few events, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate, or the low estimate is higher. The site shows the figures as UCDP publishes them.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 3. Ethiopia: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of September 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP4P11P
Anuak1P15P
ANURF1P2P
Argobba2P4P
EPFAS84P428P
Fano9P35P
GFNF1P0P
Government of Ethiopia109P564P
Nuer1P15P
OLA10P49P
Oromo2P4P
TPF1P0P
TPLF6P64P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Ethiopia: events by type of violence, September 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict108P91%
Non-state conflict8P7%
One-sided violence against civilians3P3%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

All months

Table 5. Monthly reports of Ethiopia, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 2026119P609PCandidate Events
August 202671P353PCandidate Events
July 202659P242PCandidate Events
June 202669P350PCandidate Events
May 202657P211PCandidate Events
April 202670P257PCandidate Events
March 202693P640PCandidate Events
February 202682P533PCandidate Events
January 202691P300PCandidate Events
December 202582361GED
November 202568865GED
October 202586557GED
September 202561706GED
August 202583308GED
July 202580245GED
June 2025112323GED
May 202591266GED
April 2025197631GED
March 2025153631GED
February 202596153GED
January 2025172412GED
December 2024129183GED
November 2024102289GED
October 2024118479GED
September 2024125311GED
August 202429231GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Ethiopia: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths in September 2026. https://conflictstats.com/country/ethiopia/month/2026-09/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.