Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Lower Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths in August 2025

Monthly report of a regionDataset: UCDP GEDData through

Search engines are asked not to list this page. They list a monthly report when three things are true. The page of the region is listed. The month is one of the last 12 months. The month has 30 or more events.

UCDP recorded 13 events of organized violence in Lower Shabelle region, Somalia in August 2025. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 252. The low estimate is 251 and the high estimate is 343. UCDP counts 2 of these deaths as deaths of civilians. The count for July 2025 was 5 events.

The count for August 2024 was 2 events. The change from August 2024 to August 2025 is up 550 percent. Among the 24 months with a report for Lower Shabelle region, Somalia, August 2025 has the highest count of events. Lower Shabelle region, Somalia holds 41 percent of the events that UCDP recorded in Somalia in August 2025. In August 2024, the share was 11 percent.

The report of the country for this month: Somalia, August 2025.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Events

The table lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths. The CSV file of Somalia has each event.

Table 1. Lower Shabelle region, August 2025: events with 10 or more estimated deaths (4 of 13 events), in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsLowHigh
1 Aug 2025Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based505050
1 Aug 2025Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based151515
3 Aug 2025Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based727272
17 Aug 2025Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based100100100

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Lower Shabelle region: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of August 2025, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Al-Shabaab13252
Government of Somalia13252

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

All months

Table 3. Monthly reports of Lower Shabelle region, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20264P4PCandidate Events
August 202611P15PCandidate Events
July 202612P73PCandidate Events
June 202611P159PCandidate Events
May 20265P142PCandidate Events
April 20268P54PCandidate Events
March 20267P73PCandidate Events
February 20266P25PCandidate Events
January 202610P44PCandidate Events
December 2025744GED
November 2025656GED
October 20251127GED
September 2025714GED
August 202513252GED
July 2025526GED
June 2025971GED
May 202536GED
April 2025233GED
March 20259179GED
December 202419GED
November 2024316GED
October 202412GED
September 202413GED
August 202426GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Lower Shabelle region: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Lower Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths in August 2025. https://conflictstats.com/country/somalia/lower-shabelle-region/month/2025-08/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.