Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Lebanon: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 5,849,421 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 17 eventsP of organized violence in Lebanon in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 41P. The count for August 2026 was 10 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 610 eventsP in Lebanon. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 4,712P. UCDP counts 467P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Lebanon has the 13th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Middle East, Lebanon has the 3rd highest count of events of the 7 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 861 events in Lebanon. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 610P, which is down 29 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 100 percentP of the events in Lebanon in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

Table 1. Lebanon: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events1710610
Estimated deaths, best estimate41254,712
Low estimate of deaths41254,714
High estimate of deaths41254,465
Deaths of civilians117467

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

In a few events, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate, or the low estimate is higher. The site shows the figures as UCDP publishes them.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 17 events in Lebanon in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 10 (preliminary).
  • UCDP recorded 41 estimated deaths in Lebanon in September 2026 (preliminary). The estimate for August 2026 was 25 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

0250500Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Lebanon by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
02,5005,000Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Lebanon by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Lebanon, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 38 events with 86 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Lebanon with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Baalbek-Hermel province21P124P19 Jun 2026
Beirut province34P215P12 Sep 2026
Beqaa province20P57P20 Jun 2026
Mount Lebanon province12P54P13 May 2026
Nabatiye province282P747P15 Sep 2026
South Lebanon province200P586P9 Sep 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 6 regions of Lebanon have a page. 3 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Lebanon: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP1P1P
Government of Iran9P20P
Government of Israel602P4,696P
Government of Israel, Government of United States of America7P15P
Hamas6P10P
Hezbollah589P4,672P
PFLP1P1P
PIJ4P8P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Lebanon: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP1P1P
Government of Iran - Government of Israel2P5P
Government of Iran - Government of Israel, Government of United States of America7P15P
Government of Israel - Hamas6P10P
Government of Israel - Hezbollah589P4,672P
Government of Israel - PFLP1P1P
Government of Israel - PIJ4P8P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Lebanon: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict609Pover 99%
Non-state conflict1Punder 1%
One-sided violence against civilians00%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Lebanon: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
201441231GED
201519200GED
20161356GED
201720297GED
201812GED
2020420GED
202339123GED
20241,1144,339GED
2025211347GED
2026, to 30 Sep 2026553P4,626PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Lebanon, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202617P41PCandidate Events
August 202610P25PCandidate Events
July 202612P21PCandidate Events
June 202689P300PCandidate Events
May 2026113P349PCandidate Events
April 2026122P734PCandidate Events
March 2026161P3,107PCandidate Events
February 202611P27PCandidate Events
January 202618P22PCandidate Events
December 20251115GED
November 20252141GED
October 20252530GED
September 20251523GED
August 20251731GED
July 20252034GED
June 20251823GED
May 20252123GED
April 20251725GED
March 20251930GED
February 20251017GED
January 20251755GED
December 20241953GED
November 20243221,160GED
October 20243661,202GED
September 20242181,532GED
August 20242244GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Middle East

Comparisons

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Lebanon: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/lebanon/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 104.3 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Lebanon in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 17 eventsP of organized violence in Lebanon in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 10 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Lebanon in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 4,712P. The low estimate is 4,714 and the high estimate is 4,465P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Lebanon as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 1,689 rows. Download the events (CSV)