Change in the count of events over 12 months
33 countries had 50 events or more in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the count of events was higher in 13, lower in 19 and level in 1 of them. The largest rise was in Iran, from 84 to 519P events (up 518 percent). The largest fall was in Israel and Palestine, from 3,838 to 933P events (down 76 percent). For all countries with a page, the count went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent.
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.
An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date
UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .
This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.
The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.
Read one change in recorded events
Iran has 84 events in the earlier window and 519P in the later window.
The table gives the percentage difference as +518%. It uses the earlier count as the denominator.
The method below gives the minimum earlier count. Countries below it are excluded from this percentage comparison.
Both windows use the same UCDP edition. Figures marked P include preliminary Candidate Events and can change in a later edition.
Open the country record for the monthly table and CSV. A change in recorded events is not a prediction.
Countries by change
The reader can sort each column.
| Country | Events, 12 months before | Events | Change | Estimated deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 84 | 519P | +518% | 23,702P |
| Colombia | 626 | 1,260P | +101% | 1,834P |
| Nigeria | 714 | 1,430P | +100% | 7,734P |
| Yemen | 345 | 690P | +100% | 5,436P |
| Mali | 495 | 780P | +58% | 2,052P |
| Somalia | 293 | 417P | +42% | 3,757P |
| Cameroon | 173 | 228P | +32% | 500P |
| Pakistan | 1,035 | 1,356P | +31% | 4,760P |
| Burkina Faso | 557 | 612P | +10% | 2,686P |
| Philippines | 67 | 72P | +7% | 185P |
| Niger | 135 | 141P | +4% | 1,147P |
| Ecuador | 379 | 389P | +3% | 763P |
| Afghanistan | 186 | 189P | +2% | 1,033P |
| Thailand | 54 | 54P | 0% | 80P |
| Indonesia | 77 | 73P | -5% | 159P |
| Sudan | 723 | 669P | -7% | 66,979P |
| Central African Republic | 68 | 59P | -13% | 260P |
| Mexico | 3,005 | 2,462P | -18% | 3,454P |
| DR Congo | 963 | 742P | -23% | 3,810P |
| Haiti | 182 | 138P | -24% | 868P |
| Myanmar | 797 | 583P | -27% | 1,932P |
| Lebanon | 861 | 610P | -29% | 4,712P |
| Ethiopia | 1,394 | 947P | -32% | 5,278P |
| Ukraine | 6,902 | 4,642P | -33% | 89,911P |
| Burundi | 52 | 34P | -35% | 37P |
| India | 235 | 151P | -36% | 328P |
| Syria | 690 | 427P | -38% | 677P |
| Brazil | 802 | 407P | -49% | 566P |
| Iraq | 162 | 80P | -51% | 242P |
| Mozambique | 249 | 110P | -56% | 424P |
| Russia | 800 | 340P | -57% | 624P |
| Costa Rica | 112 | 38P | -66% | 37P |
| Israel and Palestine | 3,838 | 933P | -76% | 2,065P |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
How the figures are made
A country is in the table when it had 50 events or more in the earlier 12 months. The floor keeps a small base from making a large percentage.
A change in a count can come from events, and it can come from the sources that UCDP can reach. It can also come from the way the GED and Candidate Events are made. The tables by measure give a change of the last 90 days.
UCDP define an event as: An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date
A program makes this page from the UCDP files, with fixed sentence rules. How the figures are made. Data sources and licences.
In earlier editions
- October 2026: the first row was Iran (+518%).
Other findings
Cite this page
ConflictStats. Change in the count of events over 12 months. https://conflictstats.com/findings/change-in-events-12-months/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .
The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.