Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Syria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 25,620,427 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 8 eventsP of organized violence in Syria in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 40P. The count for August 2026 was 52 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 427 eventsP in Syria. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 677P. The low estimate is 676 and the high estimate is 679P. UCDP counts 398P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Syria has the 16th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Middle East, Syria has the 5th highest count of events of the 7 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 690 events in Syria. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 427P, which is down 38 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of one-sided violence are 59 percentP of the events in Syria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 13 percentP.

Table 1. Syria: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events852427
Estimated deaths, best estimate4065677
Low estimate of deaths4065676
High estimate of deaths4065679
Deaths of civilians848398

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 8 events in Syria in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 52 (preliminary).
  • UCDP recorded 40 estimated deaths in Syria in September 2026 (preliminary). The estimate for August 2026 was 65 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

0100200Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Syria by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
02,5005,000Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Syria by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Syria, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 107 events with 159 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Syria with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Al Hasakah governorate34P54P4 Sep 2026
Aleppo governorate74P148P27 Aug 2026
Ar Raqqah governorate32P68P13 Aug 2026
As Suwayda governorate19P32P1 Sep 2026
Damascus governorate11P24P4 Jul 2026
Daraa governorate22P31P17 Sep 2026
Deir ez Zor governorate59P83P18 Sep 2026
Hamah governorate37P45P30 Sep 2026
Homs governorate53P73P4 Sep 2026
Idlib governorate24P45P9 Sep 2026
Latakia governorate16P23P5 Aug 2026
Rif Dimashq governorate42P47P20 Aug 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 12 regions of Syria have a page. 2 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Syria: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP329P453P
Government of Iran1P5P
Government of Israel1P1P
Government of Israel, Government of United States of America1P5P
Government of Syria74P180P
IS46P80P
National Guard8P11P
Saraya Ansar al-Sunna18
SDF42P120P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Syria: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP101P189P
Actor not identified by UCDP - Civilians228P264P
Government of Iran - Government of Israel, Government of United States of America1P5P
Government of Israel - Government of Syria1P1P
Government of Syria - Civilians13P22P
Government of Syria - IS26P51P
Government of Syria - National Guard8P11P
Government of Syria - SDF26P95P
IS - Civilians6P6P
IS - SDF1423
Saraya Ansar al-Sunna - Civilians18
SDF - Civilians22

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Syria: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict113P26%
Non-state conflict64P15%
One-sided violence against civilians250P59%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Syria: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
20178,08038,532GED
20183,56221,735GED
20192,39111,231GED
20201,1455,694GED
20218281,953GED
20228001,677GED
20231,0092,204GED
20241,1103,621GED
20253723,449GED
2026, to 30 Sep 2026395P604PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Syria, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20268P40PCandidate Events
August 202652P65PCandidate Events
July 202651P71PCandidate Events
June 202649P60PCandidate Events
May 202640P54PCandidate Events
April 202647P59PCandidate Events
March 202642P54PCandidate Events
February 202653P79PCandidate Events
January 202653P122PCandidate Events
December 20251842GED
November 2025510GED
October 2025921GED
September 20252237GED
August 20252441GED
July 202538431GED
June 20252357GED
May 20251833GED
April 20251825GED
March 2025702,244GED
February 202550116GED
January 202577392GED
December 2024141954GED
November 2024113739GED
October 202496207GED
September 202475186GED
August 202476146GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Middle East

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Syria who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees4,865,764
Asylum seekers154,355

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Syria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/syria/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 16.7 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Syria in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 8 eventsP of organized violence in Syria in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 52 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Syria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 677P. The low estimate is 676 and the high estimate is 679P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Syria as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 1,192 rows. Download the events (CSV)