Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Rakhine state, Myanmar: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Rakhine statePopulation about 3,188,807 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 10 eventsP of organized violence in Rakhine state, Myanmar in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 62P. The count for August 2026 was 7 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 72 eventsP in Rakhine state, Myanmar. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 294P. The low estimate is 293 and the high estimate is 442P. UCDP counts 253P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 13 regions of Myanmar with a page, Rakhine state has the 3rd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Rakhine state holds 12 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Myanmar in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 63 events in Rakhine state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 72P, which is up 14 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Myanmar as a whole went from 797 to 583P, which is down 27 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 100 percentP of the events in Rakhine state in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Myanmar, the share is 86 percentP.

Table 1. Rakhine state, Myanmar: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events10772
Estimated deaths, best estimate6235294
Low estimate of deaths6235293
High estimate of deaths6236442
Deaths of civilians5635253

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Rakhine state, Myanmar on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

01020Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Rakhine state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Rakhine state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 72 events with 294 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Rakhine state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Government of Myanmar (Burma)72P294P
ULA72P294P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Rakhine state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Rakhine state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Kyaukpyu district22P46P
Maungdaw district2P5P
Mrauk-U district10P123P
Sittwe district19P52P
Thandwe district18P62P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Rakhine state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict72P100%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians00%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Rakhine state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202610P62PCandidate Events
August 20267P35PCandidate Events
July 20266P21PCandidate Events
June 20264P14PCandidate Events
May 20264P5PCandidate Events
April 20263P5PCandidate Events
March 20262P1PCandidate Events
February 202610P40PCandidate Events
January 20264P8PCandidate Events
December 2025660GED
November 2025723GED
October 2025920GED
September 2025322GED
August 2025317GED
June 202525GED
May 2025527GED
April 202535GED
March 202547GED
February 2025511GED
January 2025885GED
December 2024712GED
November 2024821GED
October 20241562GED
September 2024727GED
August 20248121GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Myanmar: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Rakhine state, Myanmar: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/myanmar/rakhine-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Rakhine state, Myanmar in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 10 eventsP of organized violence in Rakhine state, Myanmar in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 7 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Rakhine state, Myanmar in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 294P. The low estimate is 293 and the high estimate is 442P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.