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Rakhine state, Myanmar: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Rakhine state, data through 31 Jul 2026. Population about 3,188,807 (Wikidata).
Rakhine state, Myanmar recorded 14 events and 40 estimated deaths from 3 May 2026 to 31 Jul 2026, roughly unchanged (-7%) from the preceding 90-day period.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 61 events and 236 estimated deaths were recorded in Rakhine state. That is -15% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 235 and 383. 98% of events were classed as state-based armed conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 201. Relative to population, that is 19.1 events per million people.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Government of Myanmar (Burma) - ULA (60 events, 235 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025
Events in Rakhine state, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Rakhine state, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Kyaukpyu district | 24 | 48 |
| Sittwe district | 13 | 43 |
| Thandwe district | 12 | 34 |
| Mrauk-U district | 10 | 106 |
| Maungdaw district | 2 | 5 |
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jun 2026 | Mrauk-U district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based, 9 civilian, 4 sources | 10 |
| 19 Jul 2026 | Thandwe district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based, 5 civilian | 5 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Thandwe district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based, 2 civilian | 4 |
| 10 Jul 2026 | Thandwe district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based, 2 civilian | 4 |
| 2 Jul 2026 | Maungdaw district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based, 2 sources | 4 |
| 24 Jul 2026 | Thandwe district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based, 3 civilian | 3 |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Thandwe district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based, 2 civilian, 2 sources | 2 |
| 7 May 2026 | Mrauk-U district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based, 2 civilian | 2 |
| 3 Jul 2026 | Maungdaw district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based, 1 civilian | 1 |
| 26 Jun 2026 | Thandwe district Rakhine state | Government of Myanmar vs ULA State-based | 1 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Myanmar | 61 | 236 |
| ULA | 60 | 235 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Myanmar (Burma) - ULA | 60 | 235 |
| Government of Myanmar (Burma) - Civilians | 1 | 1 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 60 | 98% |
| Non-state conflict | 0 | 0% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 1 | 2% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Rakhine state in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 61 organized-violence events in Rakhine state between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 236 deaths (range 235 to 383).
Is violence in Rakhine state increasing or decreasing?
Broadly stable. Events in the last 90 days (14) were within 20% of the preceding 90 days (15).
Who are the main armed actors in Rakhine state?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Government of Myanmar (61 events), ULA (60 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Rakhine state?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Rakhine state, 98% of events over the last 12 months were state-based armed conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025Jun 2025May 2025Apr 2025Mar 2025Feb 2025Jan 2025Dec 2024Nov 2024Oct 2024Sep 2024Aug 2024Jul 2024
Other regions of Myanmar
Sagaing region · Magway region · Bago region · Chin state · Mandalay region · Mon state · Kachin state · Tanintharyi region · Kayah state · Kayin state · Shan state
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.