Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Sagaing region, Myanmar: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Sagaing regionPopulation about 6,015,590 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 11 eventsP of organized violence in Sagaing region, Myanmar in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 32P. The count for August 2026 was 11 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 125 eventsP in Sagaing region, Myanmar. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 438P. The low estimate is 435 and the high estimate is 546P. UCDP counts 323P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 13 regions of Myanmar with a page, Sagaing region has the highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Sagaing region holds 21 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Myanmar in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 170 events in Sagaing region. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 125P, which is down 26 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Myanmar as a whole went from 797 to 583P, which is down 27 percent. For the events in Sagaing region, the three types of violence have shares within 5 points of the shares for Myanmar.

Table 1. Sagaing region, Myanmar: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events1111125
Estimated deaths, best estimate3234438
Low estimate of deaths3233435
High estimate of deaths3234546
Deaths of civilians2430323

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Sagaing region, Myanmar on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Sagaing region by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Sagaing region, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 125 events with 438 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Sagaing region: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Government of Myanmar (Burma)125P438P
KIO2P2P
NUG57P265P
SCEF50P148P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Sagaing region that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Sagaing region in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Hkamti district1P7P
Kale district4P4P
Katha district16P92P
Mawlaik district2P3P
Monywa district35P102P
Sagaing district10P50P
Shwebo district54P176P
Tamu district2P2P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Sagaing region: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict109P87%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians16P13%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Sagaing region, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202611P32PCandidate Events
August 202611P34PCandidate Events
July 20265P6PCandidate Events
June 202612P26PCandidate Events
May 202610P14PCandidate Events
April 20268P47PCandidate Events
March 202613P60PCandidate Events
February 20267P32PCandidate Events
January 202615P39PCandidate Events
December 20251583GED
November 20251017GED
October 2025848GED
September 20251644GED
August 20251645GED
July 20251175GED
June 2025719GED
May 20251779GED
April 20252493GED
March 2025410GED
February 20251651GED
January 20251442GED
December 20241225GED
November 20241633GED
October 20241760GED
September 2024935GED
August 20241241GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Myanmar: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Sagaing region, Myanmar: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/myanmar/sagaing-region/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Sagaing region, Myanmar in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 11 eventsP of organized violence in Sagaing region, Myanmar in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 11 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Sagaing region, Myanmar in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 438P. The low estimate is 435 and the high estimate is 546P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.