Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Bago region, Myanmar: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Bago regionPopulation about 5,678,069 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 2 eventsP of organized violence in Bago region, Myanmar in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 8P. The count for August 2026 was 4 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 72 eventsP in Bago region, Myanmar. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 199P. The low estimate is 199 and the high estimate is 256P. UCDP counts 163P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 13 regions of Myanmar with a page, Bago region has the 3rd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Bago region holds 12 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Myanmar in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 83 events in Bago region. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 72P, which is down 13 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Myanmar as a whole went from 797 to 583P, which is down 27 percent. For the events in Bago region, the three types of violence have shares within 5 points of the shares for Myanmar.

Table 1. Bago region, Myanmar: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events2472
Estimated deaths, best estimate88199
Low estimate of deaths88199
High estimate of deaths88256
Deaths of civilians84163

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Bago region, Myanmar on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

01020Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Bago region by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Bago region, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 72 events with 199 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Bago region: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Government of Myanmar (Burma)71P194P
KNU26P108P
NUG14P22P
SCEF24P58P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Bago region that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Bago region in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Bago district19P70P
Pyay district4P4P
Taungoo district34P94P
Thayarwady district15P31P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Bago region: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict63P88%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians9P13%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Bago region, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20262P8PCandidate Events
August 20264P8PCandidate Events
July 20265P13PCandidate Events
June 20264P10PCandidate Events
May 20266P15PCandidate Events
April 20266P8PCandidate Events
March 202610P87PCandidate Events
February 20268P14PCandidate Events
January 202612P18PCandidate Events
December 2025610GED
November 202544GED
October 202554GED
September 20251012GED
August 202559GED
July 202548GED
June 20251214GED
May 20251033GED
April 2025911GED
March 202535GED
February 2025510GED
January 202558GED
December 2024918GED
November 202446GED
October 2024715GED
August 2024510GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Myanmar: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Bago region, Myanmar: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/myanmar/bago-region/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Bago region, Myanmar in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 2 eventsP of organized violence in Bago region, Myanmar in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 4 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Bago region, Myanmar in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 199P. The low estimate is 199 and the high estimate is 256P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.