Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Pakistan: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 255,219,554 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 149 eventsP of organized violence in Pakistan in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 667P. The low estimate is 638 and the high estimate is 739P. The count for August 2026 was 144 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 1,356 eventsP in Pakistan. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 4,760P. The low estimate is 4,414 and the high estimate is 7,046P. UCDP counts 422P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Pakistan has the 4th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Asia, Pakistan has the highest count of events of the 9 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 1,035 events in Pakistan. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 1,356P, which is up 31 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 1 percentP of the events in Pakistan in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 24 percentP.

Table 1. Pakistan: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events1491441,356
Estimated deaths, best estimate6675354,760
Low estimate of deaths6385314,414
High estimate of deaths7395887,046
Deaths of civilians3734422

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 667 estimated deaths in Pakistan in September 2026 (preliminary). The estimate for August 2026 was 535 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

0100200Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Pakistan by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
05001,000Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Pakistan by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Pakistan, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 457 events with 1,852 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Pakistan with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Azad Jammu & Kashmir9P25P28 Jul 2026
Balochistan province641P2,017P30 Sep 2026
Khyber Pakhtunkwa province675P2,625P30 Sep 2026
Punjab province9P22P21 Aug 2026
Sindh province15P28P19 Sep 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 5 regions of Pakistan have a page. 2 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Pakistan: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP11P49P
BRAS568P1,596P
Government of Afghanistan32P118P
Government of Pakistan1,163P4,413P
IMP33P237P
IS63P138P
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar6P32P
Lashkar of Orakzai2P5P
Lashkar-e-Taiba1P1P
Shia (Pakistan)1P1P
SRA3P2P
Sunni (Pakistan)1P1P
TTP621P2,628P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Pakistan: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP11P49P
BRAS - Civilians69P118P
Government of Afghanistan - Government of Pakistan24P99P
Government of Afghanistan - IS8P19P
Government of Pakistan - BRAS499P1,478P
Government of Pakistan - Civilians32P13P
Government of Pakistan - IMP32P235P
Government of Pakistan - IS22P34P
Government of Pakistan - Jamaat-ul-Ahrar4P8P
Government of Pakistan - SRA1P0P
Government of Pakistan - TTP549P2,546P
IMP - TTP1P2P
IS - Civilians29P75P
IS - Lashkar-e-Taiba1P1P
IS - TTP3P9P
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar - TTP2P24P
Lashkar of Orakzai - TTP2P5P
Shia (Pakistan) - Sunni (Pakistan)1P1P
SRA - Civilians2P2P
TTP - Civilians64P42P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Pakistan: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict1,150P85%
Non-state conflict10P1%
One-sided violence against civilians196P14%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Pakistan: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
2017163960GED
201893483GED
2019100296GED
2020147411GED
2021194458GED
2022287728GED
20233871,183GED
20247331,969GED
20251,1273,331GED
2026, to 30 Sep 20261,042P3,753PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Pakistan, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 2026149P667PCandidate Events
August 2026144P535PCandidate Events
July 2026173P662PCandidate Events
June 2026140P430PCandidate Events
May 202697P341PCandidate Events
April 202672P202PCandidate Events
March 2026103P189PCandidate Events
February 202680P314PCandidate Events
January 202684P413PCandidate Events
December 2025106223GED
November 2025106334GED
October 2025102450GED
September 2025103378GED
August 202592228GED
July 202595205GED
June 202572165GED
May 2025103245GED
April 202583225GED
March 202588342GED
February 202592241GED
January 202585295GED
December 202474242GED
November 202474337GED
October 202474185GED
September 202463162GED
August 202471222GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Asia

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Pakistan who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees90,497
Asylum seekers65,066

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Pakistan: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/pakistan/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 5.3 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Pakistan in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 149 eventsP of organized violence in Pakistan in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 144 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Pakistan in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 4,760P. The low estimate is 4,414 and the high estimate is 7,046P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Pakistan as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 2,454 rows. Download the events (CSV)