Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Thailand: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 71,619,863 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 3 eventsP of organized violence in Thailand in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 5P. The count for August 2026 was 2 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 54 eventsP in Thailand. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 80P. The low estimate is 61 and the high estimate is 104P. UCDP counts 14P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Thailand has the 35th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Asia, Thailand has the 8th highest count of events of the 9 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 54 events in Thailand. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 54P, which is level. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 96 percentP of the events in Thailand in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

Table 1. Thailand: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events3254
Estimated deaths, best estimate5480
Low estimate of deaths5461
High estimate of deaths54104
Deaths of civilians0014

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Thailand on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Thailand by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Thailand by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Thailand, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 9 events with 15 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Thailand with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Narathiwat province10P19P18 Sep 2026
Pattani province17P21P28 Jun 2026
Surin province5616 Dec 2025
Yala province8P6P19 Sep 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 4 regions of Thailand have a page. 4 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Thailand: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Government of Cambodia (Kampuchea)1934
Government of Thailand52P80P
Patani insurgents35P46P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

Table 4. Thailand: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Government of Cambodia (Kampuchea) - Government of Thailand1934
Government of Thailand - Patani insurgents33P46P
Patani insurgents - Civilians2P0P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Thailand: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict52P96%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians2P4%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Thailand: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
20172750GED
20184061GED
20192760GED
20203347GED
20212841GED
20222636GED
20232531GED
20243139GED
202572122GED
2026, to 30 Sep 202632P42PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Thailand, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20263P5PCandidate Events
August 20262P4PCandidate Events
July 20264P6PCandidate Events
June 20265P6PCandidate Events
May 20266P7PCandidate Events
April 20264P5PCandidate Events
March 20267P8PCandidate Events
January 20261P1PCandidate Events
December 20252136GED
October 202512GED
September 202511GED
July 20252244GED
June 202533GED
May 2025912GED
April 202567GED
March 202536GED
February 202534GED
January 202537GED
December 202411GED
November 202422GED
October 202411GED
August 202422GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Asia

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Thailand who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees327
Asylum seekers2,656

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Thailand: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/thailand/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 0.8 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Thailand in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 3 eventsP of organized violence in Thailand in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 2 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Thailand in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 80P. The low estimate is 61 and the high estimate is 104P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Thailand as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 108 rows. Download the events (CSV)