Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Russia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 143,513,328 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 11 eventsP of organized violence in Russia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 30P. The low estimate is 10 and the high estimate is 45P. The count for August 2026 was 20 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 340 eventsP in Russia. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 624P. The low estimate is 426 and the high estimate is 818P. UCDP counts 292P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Russia has the 20th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Europe, Russia has the 2nd highest count of events of the 2 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 800 events in Russia. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 340P, which is down 57 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 100 percentP of the events in Russia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

Table 1. Russia: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events1120340
Estimated deaths, best estimate3054624
Low estimate of deaths1023426
High estimate of deaths4584818
Deaths of civilians05292

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 11 events in Russia in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 20 (preliminary).
  • UCDP recorded 30 estimated deaths in Russia in September 2026 (preliminary). The estimate for August 2026 was 54 (preliminary).
  • UCDP recorded 340 events in Russia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 (preliminary). The count for the 12 months to 31 Aug 2026 was 282 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

0100200Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Russia by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
02,5005,000Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Russia by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Russia, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 79 events with 156 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Russia with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Belgorod oblast168P243P15 Sep 2026
Bryansk oblast30P46P17 Sep 2026
Krasnodar krai14P42P3 Sep 2026
Kursk oblast73P165P22 Sep 2026
Moscow oblast7P10P17 Jul 2026
Rostov oblast13P21P31 Aug 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 6 regions of Russia have a page. 22 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Russia: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP1P2P
Black Spark1P29P
Government of Russia (Soviet Union)339P622P
Government of Ukraine335P586P
IS2P5P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Russia: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP1P2P
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Black Spark1P29P
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Civilians12
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Government of Ukraine335P586P
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - IS2P5P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Russia: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict339Pover 99%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians1under 1%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Russia: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
20172853GED
20182138GED
20191226GED
20201833GED
202122GED
20223267GED
202387204GED
202473410,590GED
20255374,433GED
2026, to 30 Sep 2026256P480PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Russia, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202611P30PCandidate Events
August 202620P54PCandidate Events
July 202651P75PCandidate Events
June 202644P83PCandidate Events
May 202630P77PCandidate Events
April 202642P81PCandidate Events
March 202625P43PCandidate Events
February 202616P20PCandidate Events
January 202617P17PCandidate Events
December 20253053GED
November 20252548GED
October 20252943GED
September 20254183GED
August 20253763GED
July 20253986GED
June 20253055GED
May 202548136GED
April 202562187GED
March 202577978GED
February 202563937GED
January 2025561,764GED
December 2024751,832GED
November 20241233,206GED
October 20241492,666GED
September 20241231,194GED
August 20241061,148GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Europe

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Russia who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees99,360
Asylum seekers88,310

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Russia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/russia/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 2.4 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Russia in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 11 eventsP of organized violence in Russia in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 20 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Russia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 624P. The low estimate is 426 and the high estimate is 818P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Russia as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 1,263 rows. Download the events (CSV)