Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Ukraine: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 38,980,376 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 246 eventsP of organized violence in Ukraine in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 6,202P. The low estimate is 6,085 and the high estimate is 6,187P. The count for August 2026 was 297 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 4,642 eventsP in Ukraine. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 89,911P. The low estimate is 87,336 and the high estimate is 95,232P. UCDP counts 3,150P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Ukraine has the highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Europe, Ukraine has the highest count of events of the 2 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 6,902 events in Ukraine. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 4,642P, which is down 33 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 100 percentP of the events in Ukraine in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

Table 1. Ukraine: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events2462974,642
Estimated deaths, best estimate6,2025,65189,911
Low estimate of deaths6,0855,52187,336
High estimate of deaths6,1876,43995,232
Deaths of civilians2693783,150

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

In a few events, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate, or the low estimate is higher. The site shows the figures as UCDP publishes them.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Ukraine on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

05001,000Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Ukraine by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
025,00050,000Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Ukraine by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Ukraine, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 911 events with 12,613 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Ukraine with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Autonomous Republic of Crimea27P57P29 Aug 2026
Chernihiv oblast40P65P14 Sep 2026
Dnipropetrovsk oblast359P741P30 Sep 2026
Donetsk oblast1,545P3,976P28 Sep 2026
Kharkiv oblast568P1,144P27 Sep 2026
Kherson oblast454P667P30 Sep 2026
Kyiv oblast37P128P30 Sep 2026
Kyiv Special Republican city47P212P30 Sep 2026
Luhansk oblast127P320P16 Sep 2026
Mykolayiv oblast23P29P29 Sep 2026
Odessa oblast54P104P27 Sep 2026
Poltava oblast8P14P30 Jul 2026
Sevastopol City State Administration10P16P13 Aug 2026
Sumy oblast310P576P30 Sep 2026
Zaporizhzhya oblast635P1,356P29 Sep 2026
Zhytomyr oblast8P16P17 Sep 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 16 regions of Ukraine have a page. 10 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Ukraine: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP7P18P
Government of Russia (Soviet Union)4,634P89,892P
Government of Ukraine4,627P89,863P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Ukraine: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP2P6P
Actor not identified by UCDP - Civilians5P12P
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Civilians8P30P
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Government of Ukraine4,626P89,862P
Government of Ukraine - Civilians1P1P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Ukraine: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict4,628Pover 99%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians14Punder 1%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Ukraine: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
2017216447GED
2018153243GED
2019199311GED
2020145196GED
2021167208GED
20227,502100,604GED
202310,75876,467GED
202411,10291,779GED
20257,50490,345GED
2026, to 30 Sep 20262,567P64,025PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Ukraine, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 2026246P6,202PCandidate Events
August 2026297P5,651PCandidate Events
July 2026404P4,983PCandidate Events
June 2026369P4,810PCandidate Events
May 2026294P6,718PCandidate Events
April 2026268P6,954PCandidate Events
March 2026294P7,849PCandidate Events
February 2026166P7,474PCandidate Events
January 2026229P13,384PCandidate Events
December 202567410,107GED
November 202564310,713GED
October 20257585,066GED
September 20258051,613GED
August 202579020,830GED
July 20256787,534GED
June 20254965,738GED
May 20255005,188GED
April 20256215,736GED
March 20256155,841GED
February 20255485,618GED
January 20253766,361GED
December 20244027,347GED
November 20244616,167GED
October 20246106,618GED
September 20247068,129GED
August 20246248,368GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Europe

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Ukraine who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees5,224,131
Asylum seekers26,583

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Ukraine: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/ukraine/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 119.1 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Ukraine in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 246 eventsP of organized violence in Ukraine in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 297 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Ukraine in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 89,911P. The low estimate is 87,336 and the high estimate is 95,232P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Ukraine as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 12,250 rows. Download the events (CSV)