Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Katsina state, Nigeria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Katsina statePopulation about 7,831,319 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 10 eventsP of organized violence in Katsina state, Nigeria in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 41P. The low estimate is 40 and the high estimate is 41P. The count for August 2026 was 13 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 64 eventsP in Katsina state, Nigeria. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 328P. The low estimate is 299 and the high estimate is 567P. UCDP counts 135P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 30 regions of Nigeria with a page, Katsina state has the 7th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Katsina state holds 4 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Nigeria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 5 events in Katsina state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 64P, which is up 1180 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Nigeria as a whole went from 714 to 1,430P, which is up 100 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 8 percentP of the events in Katsina state in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Nigeria, the share is 34 percentP.

Table 1. Katsina state, Nigeria: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events101364
Estimated deaths, best estimate4165328
Low estimate of deaths4065299
High estimate of deaths4195567
Deaths of civilians924135

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Katsina state, Nigeria on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

01020Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Katsina state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Katsina state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 64 events with 328 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Katsina state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP53P172P
Government of Nigeria6P104P
Group named for a person (name not shown)10P154P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Katsina state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Katsina state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Bakori lga11P120P
Dandume lga4P9P
Dutsin-Ma lga5P27P
Faskari lga5P32P
Funtua lga3P6P
Kankara lga3P14P
Kankia lga3P33P
Malumfashi lga4P8P
Matazu lga10P35P
Musawa lga3P11P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Katsina state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict33P52%
Non-state conflict5P8%
One-sided violence against civilians26P41%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Katsina state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202610P41PCandidate Events
August 202613P65PCandidate Events
July 20264P71PCandidate Events
June 20264P21PCandidate Events
May 202610P65PCandidate Events
April 20268P24PCandidate Events
March 20264P4PCandidate Events
February 20266P29PCandidate Events
January 20265P8PCandidate Events
September 202513GED
August 2025252GED
February 202511GED
December 202418GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Nigeria: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Katsina state, Nigeria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/nigeria/katsina-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Katsina state, Nigeria in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 10 eventsP of organized violence in Katsina state, Nigeria in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 13 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Katsina state, Nigeria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 328P. The low estimate is 299 and the high estimate is 567P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.