Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Mozambique: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 35,631,653 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 14 eventsP of organized violence in Mozambique in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 20P. The low estimate is 10 and the high estimate is 22P. The count for August 2026 was 3 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 110 eventsP in Mozambique. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 424P. The low estimate is 315 and the high estimate is 490P. UCDP counts 153P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Mozambique has the 27th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Africa, Mozambique has the 11th highest count of events of the 20 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 249 events in Mozambique. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 110P, which is down 56 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of one-sided violence are 61 percentP of the events in Mozambique in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 13 percentP.

Table 1. Mozambique: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events143110
Estimated deaths, best estimate2022424
Low estimate of deaths1021315
High estimate of deaths2232490
Deaths of civilians85153

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 14 events in Mozambique in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 3 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Mozambique by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
0100200Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Mozambique by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Mozambique, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 24 events with 78 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Mozambique with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Cabo Delgado province95P386P30 Sep 2026
Nampula province62428 Dec 2025

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 2 regions of Mozambique have a page. 9 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Mozambique: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP2P2P
Government of Mozambique52P260P
IS94P389P
Naparama5P45P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Mozambique: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Civilians2P2P
Government of Mozambique - Civilians14P33P
Government of Mozambique - IS38P227P
IS - Civilians51P117P
IS - Naparama5P45P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Mozambique: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict38P35%
Non-state conflict5P5%
One-sided violence against civilians67P61%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Mozambique: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
201733GED
201848171GED
2019124597GED
20202131,627GED
20212351,918GED
2022268728GED
2023102273GED
2024185522GED
2025184610GED
2026, to 30 Sep 202670P287PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Mozambique, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202614P20PCandidate Events
August 20263P22PCandidate Events
July 20268P37PCandidate Events
June 20269P50PCandidate Events
May 202616P62PCandidate Events
April 20268P19PCandidate Events
March 20261P13PCandidate Events
February 20267P45PCandidate Events
January 20264P19PCandidate Events
December 2025814GED
November 20251789GED
October 20251534GED
September 20252270GED
August 20251437GED
July 20251657GED
June 20251375GED
May 20251165GED
April 2025735GED
March 20251937GED
February 20251547GED
January 20252750GED
December 202441125GED
November 20243785GED
October 20242752GED
September 2024421GED
August 2024511GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Africa

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Mozambique who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees119
Asylum seekers7,207

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Mozambique: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/mozambique/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 3.1 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Mozambique in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 14 eventsP of organized violence in Mozambique in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 3 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Mozambique in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 424P. The low estimate is 315 and the high estimate is 490P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Mozambique as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 363 rows. Download the events (CSV)